Decay

Low Earth orbiting satellites experience orbital decay and have physical lifetimes determined almost entirely by their interaction with the atmosphere. The drag force that such a satellite experiences is due to its interaction with the few air molecules that are present at these altitudes. The density of the atmosphere at LEO heights is controlled by solar X-ray flux and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere and so varies with the current space weather conditions.

Table below shows predicted decay date

last update: 2022-11-22 21:30:08.490 UTC
10.8 cm flux = 117.000000

date             satellite   norad   epoch          decay

2022-12-20  ==>  MYSAT-1     44045   22321.881838   22354.991885
2023-01-02  ==>  TW-1A       40928   22321.804274   23002.032620
2023-02-02  ==>  FALCONSAT-3 30776   22321.328001   23033.427140
2023-02-11  ==>  RS4S        53306   22321.829921   23042.842023
2023-02-13  ==>  RS1S        53309   22321.822071   23044.830080
2023-02-16  ==>  RS3S        53308   22321.837287   23047.569219
2023-02-17  ==>  RS5S        53310   22321.836125   23048.034589
2023-02-19  ==>  RS9S        53312   22321.821669   23050.674527
2023-03-16  ==>  CP-7        43615   22321.540750   23075.283900
2023-05-07  ==>  PAINANI-1   44365   22240.240045   23127.342336
2023-05-26  ==>  TUMNANOSAT  53464   22241.472901   23146.809394
2023-06-26  ==>  XW-2A       40903   22321.763445   23177.733761
2023-06-29  ==>  RS6S        53311   22241.133612   23180.974944
2023-06-30  ==>  RS12S       53313   22241.133473   23181.956040
2023-08-02  ==>  FUTABA      53463   22240.572665   23214.066124
2023-09-23  ==>  HSU-SAT1    53462   22240.767019   23266.614297
2023-11-18  ==>  VZLUSAT     42790   22321.626230   23322.010708
2023-12-18  ==>  NAYIF       42017   22321.158872   23352.374345
2023-12-28  ==>  DIY-1       47963   22321.295905   23362.112220
2024-02-05  ==>  ATHENOXAT-1 41168   22321.414740   24036.077513
2024-02-16  ==>  AAUSAT4     41460   22321.764262   24047.542760
2024-02-16  ==>  NUSAT-1     41557   22321.884391   24047.498558
2024-02-24  ==>  NUSAT-2     41558   22321.856551   24055.531952
2024-03-15  ==>  MOVE-2B     44398   22321.842847   24075.469841
2024-03-26  ==>  FIREBIRD-3  40377   22321.636970   24086.073365
2024-03-27  ==>  FIREBIRD-4  40378   22321.652305   24087.693434
2024-05-17  ==>  REAKTOR     43743   22321.642476   24138.490503
2024-05-25  ==>  GRIZU       51025   22321.136987   24146.405694
2024-06-18  ==>  ROBUSTA-1B  42792   22321.589494   24170.366638
2024-08-08  ==>  NEXUS       43937   22321.613411   24221.520740
2024-09-02  ==>  CTIM        52950   22321.087345   24246.910475
2024-09-11  ==>  SKCUBE      42789   22321.699823   24255.053703
2024-10-13  ==>  CUBEBEL-1   43666   22321.791885   24287.486847
2024-10-22  ==>  DELFI-C3    32789   22321.794380   24296.592154
2024-11-15  ==>  DELFI-PQ    51074   22321.143471   24320.537112
2024-11-22  ==>  XW-2E       40909   22321.832746   24327.839136
2024-11-27  ==>  XW-2F       40910   22321.747535   24332.080515
2024-12-01  ==>  GRIFEX      40379   22321.628385   24336.468450
2025-01-03  ==>  LUME-1      43908   22321.631593   25003.793464
2025-01-07  ==>  AO-92       43137   22321.184817   25007.210495
2025-02-18  ==>  SANOSAT-1   51031   22321.119547   25049.995113
2025-02-19  ==>  FEES        48082   22321.655672   25050.077551
2025-03-08  ==>  TY-4        43669   22321.873797   25067.089849
2025-03-10  ==>  PICSAT      43132   22240.657636   25069.818737
2025-03-15  ==>  CAPE-3      47309   22321.787794   25074.987335
2025-04-22  ==>  OPSSAT      44878   22321.778385   25112.915041
2025-07-03  ==>  BEESAT-9    44412   22321.444308   25184.084402
2025-07-12  ==>  ISS         25544   22322.039682   25193.319782
2025-07-26  ==>  MAXVALIER   42778   22321.611246   25207.028324
2025-07-28  ==>  JAISAT      44419   22321.448505   25209.287580
2025-08-10  ==>  TY-2        43155   22321.799278   25222.905012

 
calculations based on SatEvo