Decay


Low Earth orbiting satellites experience orbital decay and have physical lifetimes determined almost entirely by their interaction with the atmosphere. The drag force that such a satellite experiences is due to its interaction with the few air molecules that are present at these altitudes. The density of the atmosphere at LEO heights is controlled by solar X-ray flux and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere and so varies with the current space weather conditions.

Table below shows predicted decay date

last update: 2022-01-18 10:38:16.350 UTC
10.8 cm flux = 114.000000

date             satellite   norad   epoch          decay

2022-04-13  ==>  BRICSAT2    44355   22016.401277   22103.999318
2022-04-17  ==>  OPUSAT-2    47930   22016.486955   22107.675031
2022-04-17  ==>  GUARANISAT-147930   22016.486955   22107.675031
2022-04-17  ==>  OPUSAT-2    47930   22016.486955   22107.675031
2022-04-17  ==>  GUARANISAT-147930   22016.486955   22107.675031
2022-04-21  ==>  STARS-EC    47928   22016.328849   22111.942163
2022-04-21  ==>  GRIZU       99488   22013.684768   22111.403256
2022-04-28  ==>  SANOSAT-1   70312   22013.688379   22118.235771
2022-04-28  ==>  MOVE-2      70312   22013.688379   22118.235771
2022-05-03  ==>  TEVEL-X     99471   22013.690455   22123.745570
2022-05-07  ==>  ORIGAMISAT-143933   22016.371110   22127.405780
2022-05-08  ==>  TAUSAT      47926   22016.462054   22128.666669
2022-05-14  ==>  MIR-SAT1    48868   22016.547077   22134.644945
2022-06-23  ==>  AZTECHSAT-1 45258   22016.448567   22174.287869
2022-06-28  ==>  ACRUX-1     44369   22016.312019   22179.407701
2022-07-05  ==>  TSURU       47927   22016.182036   22186.341853
2022-07-13  ==>  MAYA-2      47929   22016.434078   22194.931220
2022-10-27  ==>  INNOSAT-2   43738   22016.557215   22300.772401
2022-11-27  ==>  LIGHTSAIL-2 44420   22016.442784   22331.781378
2022-12-22  ==>  ELFIN-A     43617   22016.581843   22356.022287
2023-01-15  ==>  ELFIN-B     43616   22016.580239   23015.850124
2023-02-26  ==>  FALCONSAT-3 30776   22016.471259   23057.042986
2023-03-26  ==>  MYSAT-1     44045   22016.490108   23085.859423
2023-07-07  ==>  INS1B       41950   22016.432228   23188.299822
2023-07-16  ==>  CP-7        43615   22016.571870   23197.273077
2023-09-10  ==>  HUSKYSAT-1  45119   22016.440920   23253.427219
2023-09-12  ==>  TW-1A       40928   22016.598943   23255.869495
2023-11-11  ==>  INS-1C      40377   22016.483189   23315.591956
2023-11-11  ==>  FIREBIRD-3  40377   22016.483189   23315.591956
2024-02-02  ==>  NAYIF       42017   22016.454268   24033.044583
2024-03-21  ==>  FIREBIRD-4  40378   22016.517011   24081.709633
2024-05-02  ==>  VZLUSAT     42790   22016.575859   24123.948631
2024-06-04  ==>  BEESAT-4    41619   22016.409138   24156.883552
2024-06-07  ==>  INS1A       41949   22016.452904   24159.739507
2024-08-12  ==>  ROBUSTA-1B  42792   22016.368969   24225.007166
2024-08-28  ==>  DIY-1       47963   22016.497763   24241.084518
2024-09-27  ==>  GRIFEX      40379   22016.459194   24271.802552
2024-10-11  ==>  INS-1C      43116   22016.464485   24285.962183

 
calculations based on SatEvo

2 thoughts on “Decay”

  1. 2019-02-27 ==> FOX-1C 42700 19037.681851 19058.483559
    2019-02-27 ==> HAVELSAT 42700 19037.681851 19058.483559

    FOX-1C/AO-95 is object 43770.

  2. Interesting 1KUNS not on the list, currently sitting at around 300km? nSight1 de orbited within 2month from there

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