Decay

Low Earth orbiting satellites experience orbital decay and have physical lifetimes determined almost entirely by their interaction with the atmosphere. The drag force that such a satellite experiences is due to its interaction with the few air molecules that are present at these altitudes. The density of the atmosphere at LEO heights is controlled by solar X-ray flux and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere and so varies with the current space weather conditions.

Table below shows predicted decay date

last update: 2020-10-11 20:54:07.110 UTC
10.8 cm flux = 74.000000

date             satellite   norad   epoch          decay

2020-10-12  ==>  TRSI        44831   20283.901517   20286.719270
2020-10-15  ==>  ENDUROSAT   43551   20285.528558   20289.712643
2020-10-31  ==>  FOSSASAT-1  44829   20283.423430   20305.806551
2020-12-09  ==>  BIRD-BT     43591   20285.533029   20344.152380
2020-12-12  ==>  BIRD-MY     43589   20285.523620   20347.388213
2020-12-14  ==>  BIRD-PH     43590   20285.515251   20349.257933
2020-12-17  ==>  SIRIUSSAT-2 43596   20285.497367   20352.173871
2021-02-12  ==>  SIRIUSSAT-1 43595   20285.553999   21043.540041
2021-02-13  ==>  EQUISAT     43552   20285.518326   21044.171086
2021-02-15  ==>  UBAKUSAT    43467   20285.496644   21046.793395
2021-05-10  ==>  TW-1C       40926   20285.445842   21130.261414
2021-05-20  ==>  DELPHINI    44030   20284.917666   21140.927123
2021-06-02  ==>  PW-SAT2     43814   20285.503832   21153.700505
2021-06-05  ==>  SWIATOWID   44426   20285.550645   21156.557796
2021-06-27  ==>  OCULUS-ASR  44356   20282.689624   21178.273528
2021-07-04  ==>  TW-1B       40927   20285.430312   21185.336539
2022-01-24  ==>  ENTRYSAT    44429   20285.525959   22024.248895
2022-01-30  ==>  PSAT        40654   20282.229773   22030.627604
2022-05-12  ==>  RAAVANA     44329   20285.539680   22132.246515
2022-05-28  ==>  NEPALISAT   44331   20284.826485   22148.523101
2022-05-29  ==>  SPOOQY-1    44332   20285.543128   22149.270078
2022-06-05  ==>  UGUISU      44330   20284.790929   22156.726896
2022-08-05  ==>  CP9         44360   20285.364661   22217.129698
2022-08-11  ==>  FOSSASAT-1  43019   20285.121391   22223.972427
2022-08-11  ==>  ECAMSAT     43019   20285.121391   22223.972427
2022-10-01  ==>  SWAMPSAT-2  45115   20285.256399   22274.582050
2023-01-30  ==>  KRAKSAT     44427   20285.609005   23030.175122

 
calculations based on SatEvo