Decay

Low Earth orbiting satellites experience orbital decay and have physical lifetimes determined almost entirely by their interaction with the atmosphere. The drag force that such a satellite experiences is due to its interaction with the few air molecules that are present at these altitudes. The density of the atmosphere at LEO heights is controlled by solar X-ray flux and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere and so varies with the current space weather conditions.

Table below shows predicted decay date

last update: 2020-08-03 13:31:07.140 UTC
10.8 cm flux = 72.000000

date             satellite   norad   epoch          decay

2020-08-24  ==>  TANUSHA-4   43598   20216.022073   20237.896131
2020-09-05  ==>  TANUSHA-3   43597   20216.057537   20249.711375
2020-09-26  ==>  SMOG-P      44832   20216.112294   20270.522711
2020-10-09  ==>  ATL-1       44830   20216.105153   20283.606109
2020-10-14  ==>  ENDUROSAT   43551   20215.805679   20288.531700
2020-10-21  ==>  TRSI        44831   20214.100559   20295.425553
2020-11-30  ==>  FOSSASAT-1  44829   20215.094574   20335.252067
2020-12-07  ==>  BIRD-BT     43591   20215.927736   20342.870118
2020-12-08  ==>  BIRD-MY     43589   20215.841238   20343.871292
2021-01-11  ==>  BIRD-PH     43590   20215.707640   21011.961416
2021-01-12  ==>  SIRIUSSAT-2 43596   20216.070654   21012.441262
2021-02-05  ==>  OCULUS-ASR  44356   20215.810146   21036.827631
2021-02-20  ==>  SIRIUSSAT-1 43595   20215.752134   21051.988303
2021-03-04  ==>  UBAKUSAT    43467   20215.751604   21063.337064
2021-03-20  ==>  EQUISAT     43552   20215.724802   21079.502986
2021-06-13  ==>  PW-SAT2     43814   20215.753836   21164.728304
2021-06-13  ==>  DELPHINI    44030   20216.015692   21164.899380
2021-07-31  ==>  TW-1C       40926   20216.121851   21212.532706
2021-09-20  ==>  CP9         44360   20215.793742   21263.084446
2021-09-26  ==>  SWIATOWID   44426   20216.239480   21269.061503
2021-10-12  ==>  TW-1B       40927   20216.099949   21285.975693
2022-05-26  ==>  RAAVANA     44329   20216.073317   22146.939102
2022-06-19  ==>  NEPALISAT   44331   20216.065201   22170.346119
2022-06-29  ==>  UGUISU      44330   20215.767910   22180.618583
2022-07-14  ==>  SPOOQY-1    44332   20216.071606   22195.700701
2022-07-28  ==>  ENTRYSAT    44429   20214.997740   22209.908839
2022-08-28  ==>  ECAMSAT     43019   20216.140101   22240.565863
2022-10-08  ==>  BRICSAT2    44355   20214.890595   22281.438988
2022-10-08  ==>  BRICSAT2    44355   20214.890595   22281.438988
2022-10-08  ==>  BRICSAT2    44355   20214.890595   22281.438988
2022-10-08  ==>  BRICSAT2    44355   20214.890595   22281.438988
2022-12-29  ==>  SWAMPSAT-2  45115   20215.736217   22363.527573

 
calculations based on SatEvo