Decay


Low Earth orbiting satellites experience orbital decay and have physical lifetimes determined almost entirely by their interaction with the atmosphere. The drag force that such a satellite experiences is due to its interaction with the few air molecules that are present at these altitudes. The density of the atmosphere at LEO heights is controlled by solar X-ray flux and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere and so varies with the current space weather conditions.

Table below shows predicted decay date

ast update: 2021-01-03 00:08:41.427 UTC
10.8 cm flux = 81.000000

date             satellite   norad   epoch          decay

2021-02-22  ==>  PW-SAT2     43814   21002.832402   21053.910558
2021-03-16  ==>  SWIATOWID   44426   21002.827986   21075.493488
2021-03-19  ==>  TW-1C       40926   21002.867942   21078.129684
2021-03-20  ==>  DELPHINI    44030   21002.732177   21079.481095
2021-04-06  ==>  OCULUS-ASR  44356   21002.795279   21096.356771
2021-04-26  ==>  TW-1B       40927   21002.859404   21116.656530
2021-09-12  ==>  ENTRYSAT    44429   21002.359737   21255.878952
2021-11-20  ==>  NEPALISAT   44331   21002.364204   21324.303289
2021-11-30  ==>  RAAVANA     44329   21002.373070   21334.456282
2021-12-03  ==>  UGUISU      44330   21002.528237   21337.295754
2021-12-09  ==>  SWAMPSAT-2  45115   21002.599285   21343.012350
2022-01-10  ==>  SPOOQY-1    44332   21002.835041   22010.640788
2022-02-14  ==>  CP9         44360   21002.536584   22045.335564
2022-03-03  ==>  ECAMSAT     43019   21002.266437   22062.433982
2022-03-16  ==>  PSAT        40654   20365.338634   22075.967805
2022-04-09  ==>  KRAKSAT     44427   21002.883738   22099.793280
2022-10-08  ==>  QARMAN      45263   21002.437275   22281.976124
2023-01-27  ==>  QUETZAL-1   45598   21002.573216   23027.643059
2023-04-04  ==>  BOBCAT-1    46922   21002.538741   23094.982478
2023-07-09  ==>  BRICSAT2    44355   21002.354936   23190.964467
2023-08-05  ==>  RADSAT-U    45262   21002.367598   23217.659402
/pre>

 
calculations based on SatEvo 

2 thoughts on “Decay”

  1. 2019-02-27 ==> FOX-1C 42700 19037.681851 19058.483559
    2019-02-27 ==> HAVELSAT 42700 19037.681851 19058.483559

    FOX-1C/AO-95 is object 43770.

  2. Interesting 1KUNS not on the list, currently sitting at around 300km? nSight1 de orbited within 2month from there

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