Decay


Low Earth orbiting satellites experience orbital decay and have physical lifetimes determined almost entirely by their interaction with the atmosphere. The drag force that such a satellite experiences is due to its interaction with the few air molecules that are present at these altitudes. The density of the atmosphere at LEO heights is controlled by solar X-ray flux and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere and so varies with the current space weather conditions.

Table below shows predicted decay date

last update: 2021-04-11 21:28:03.140 UTC
10.8 cm flux = 70.000000

date             satellite   norad   epoch          decay

2021-08-06  ==>  ENTRYSAT    44429   21101.584371   21218.559979
2021-10-15  ==>  NEPALISAT   44331   21101.504814   21288.843931
2021-10-15  ==>  SPARROW     44331   21101.504814   21288.843931
2021-10-19  ==>  RAAVANA     44329   21101.193905   21292.553545
2021-10-19  ==>  SUOMI100    44329   21101.193905   21292.553545
2021-10-19  ==>  QB50P1      44329   21101.193905   21292.553545
2021-10-21  ==>  UGUISU      44330   21101.491036   21294.584020
2021-10-28  ==>  SPOOQY-1    44332   21101.490846   21301.539428
2021-11-24  ==>  CP9         44360   21101.370754   21328.488354
2021-12-01  ==>  SWAMPSAT-2  45115   21101.390771   21335.063342
2022-02-15  ==>  BEESAT-5    47983   21101.583356   22046.579331
2022-02-15  ==>  BEESAT-6    47983   21101.583356   22046.579331
2022-02-15  ==>  BEESAT-7    47983   21101.583356   22046.579331
2022-02-15  ==>  BEESAT-8    47983   21101.583356   22046.579331
2022-04-25  ==>  KRAKSAT     44427   21101.373363   22115.926665
2022-06-13  ==>  QARMAN      45263   21101.598162   22164.308741
2022-08-15  ==>  PSAT        40654   21097.373085   22227.106339
2022-10-16  ==>  QUETZAL-1   45598   21100.924047   22289.376783
2022-10-26  ==>  BOBCAT-1    46922   21101.581202   22299.031422
2023-01-24  ==>  BRICSAT2    44355   21101.513556   23024.381265
2023-03-01  ==>  OPUSAT-2    47930   21101.614103   23060.605296
2023-03-01  ==>  GUARANISAT-147930   21101.614103   23060.605296
2023-03-01  ==>  OPUSAT-2    47930   21101.614103   23060.605296
2023-03-05  ==>  ARGUS-02    45257   21101.546667   23064.842121
2023-03-28  ==>  RADSAT-U    45262   21101.257527   23087.397405
2023-04-23  ==>  TAUSAT      47926   21101.609383   23113.489724
2023-06-06  ==>  ACRUX-1     44369   21101.423813   23157.405054
2023-07-14  ==>  WARP-01     47924   21101.294504   23195.054040
2023-07-14  ==>  PROX-1      47924   21101.294504   23195.054040
2023-07-21  ==>  PHOENIX     45258   21101.573925   23202.936337
2023-07-21  ==>  AZTECHSAT-1 45258   21101.573925   23202.936337
2023-07-21  ==>  PHOENIX     45258   21101.573925   23202.936337
2023-07-21  ==>  AZTECHSAT-1 45258   21101.573925   23202.936337
2023-08-05  ==>  DESCENT     46927   21101.583742   23217.775928
2023-08-14  ==>  NEUTRON-1   46923   21101.579782   23226.802944
2023-08-29  ==>  ORIGAMISAT-143933   21101.551541   23241.753281
2023-10-05  ==>  RSP-01      47925   21101.614378   23278.639302
2023-10-10  ==>  QIKOM-1     42983   21101.399994   23283.328672
2023-11-27  ==>  SPOC        46921   21101.054765   23331.073157
2023-12-23  ==>  ARMADILLO   44352   21101.600804   23357.257997

 
calculations based on SatEvo

2 thoughts on “Decay”

  1. 2019-02-27 ==> FOX-1C 42700 19037.681851 19058.483559
    2019-02-27 ==> HAVELSAT 42700 19037.681851 19058.483559

    FOX-1C/AO-95 is object 43770.

  2. Interesting 1KUNS not on the list, currently sitting at around 300km? nSight1 de orbited within 2month from there

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