Decay


Low Earth orbiting satellites experience orbital decay and have physical lifetimes determined almost entirely by their interaction with the atmosphere. The drag force that such a satellite experiences is due to its interaction with the few air molecules that are present at these altitudes. The density of the atmosphere at LEO heights is controlled by solar X-ray flux and particle precipitation from the magnetosphere and so varies with the current space weather conditions.

Table below shows predicted decay date

last update: 2022-04-24 08:42:52.320 UTC
10.8 cm flux = 163.000000

date             satellite   norad   epoch          decay

2022-04-30  ==>  ORIGAMISAT-143933   22114.063786   22120.226770
2022-05-02  ==>  TARGIT      51440   22113.318811   22122.912049
2022-05-05  ==>  TAUSAT      47926   22113.556150   22125.658289
2022-05-22  ==>  GASPACS     51439   22113.820580   22142.735832
2022-06-07  ==>  GT-1        51510   22113.770069   22158.008140
2022-06-13  ==>  AZTECHSAT-1 45258   22113.632903   22164.082736
2022-06-16  ==>  ACRUX-1     44369   22113.480396   22167.411631
2022-06-24  ==>  TSURU       47927   22113.602583   22175.355988
2022-06-24  ==>  GUARANISAT  47931   22113.779864   22175.405712
2022-06-25  ==>  MAYA-2      47929   22113.347491   22176.551935
2022-08-13  ==>  ELFIN-A     43617   22114.157490   22225.098656
2022-08-23  ==>  ELFIN-B     43616   22114.155736   22235.245276
2022-09-30  ==>  LIGHTSAIL-2 44420   22113.690494   22273.020962
2022-11-27  ==>  MYSAT-1     44045   22114.068053   22331.704729
2022-12-15  ==>  INNOSAT-2   43738   22114.070829   22349.680021
2022-12-26  ==>  FALCONSAT-3 30776   22114.081214   22360.363718
2023-01-10  ==>  TW-1A       40928   22113.994594   23010.174384
2023-01-18  ==>  CP-7        43615   22113.398003   23018.215289
2023-02-27  ==>  INS1B       41950   22113.967119   23058.401499
2023-05-26  ==>  HUSKYSAT-1  45119   22113.980771   23146.041091
2023-06-27  ==>  EASAT-2     51073   22114.154060   23178.695560
2023-08-04  ==>  VZLUSAT     42790   22113.391973   23216.732446
2023-08-17  ==>  XW-2A       40903   22114.110641   23229.971233
2023-09-10  ==>  NAYIF       42017   22114.152223   23253.763110
2023-09-26  ==>  SDSAT-4     47721   22114.192617   23269.126899
2023-10-09  ==>  DIY-1       47963   22113.968781   23282.194712
2023-10-13  ==>  FACSAT-1    43721   22114.086174   23286.425047
2023-11-05  ==>  AAUSAT4     41460   22113.714857   23309.423507
2023-11-25  ==>  SOMP        39134   22113.641107   23329.422840
2023-12-04  ==>  FIREBIRD-4  40378   22113.479485   23338.037003
2023-12-27  ==>  FIREBIRD-3  40377   22113.516104   23361.920562
2024-01-02  ==>  INS1A       41949   22113.390501   24002.357860
2024-01-16  ==>  BEESAT-4    41619   22113.385540   24016.171912
2024-02-19  ==>  INS-1C      43116   22114.140547   24050.579883
2024-03-01  ==>  SKCUBE      42789   22113.534385   24061.974384
2024-03-02  ==>  ROBUSTA-1B  42792   22113.376088   24062.913548
2024-03-10  ==>  GRIZU       51025   22113.423831   24070.279977
2024-03-10  ==>  XW-2A       51025   22113.423831   24070.279977
2024-03-19  ==>  SIGMA       43134   22114.195851   24079.469616
2024-03-21  ==>  NEXUS       43937   22114.016789   24081.507171
2024-04-07  ==>  REAKTOR     43743   22113.448345   24098.230803
2024-04-20  ==>  DELFI-C3    32789   22113.990575   24111.005333
2024-05-02  ==>  ATHENOXAT-1 41168   22113.748530   24123.209834
2024-05-09  ==>  AIST-2D     41465   22113.902752   24130.855004
2024-05-27  ==>  NUSAT-1     41557   22114.049631   24148.341696
2024-05-31  ==>  DELFI-PQ    51074   22114.138519   24152.012378
2024-06-09  ==>  AO-92       43137   22114.163541   24161.416799
2024-06-28  ==>  NUSAT-2     41558   22114.081205   24180.524859
2024-07-07  ==>  MOVE-2B     44398   22114.171144   24189.127043
2024-07-29  ==>  BEESAT-3    39135   22113.505970   24211.251980
2024-08-11  ==>  SOKRAT      44404   22113.401108   24224.820127
2024-08-18  ==>  LUME-1      43908   22113.501319   24231.789324
2024-08-27  ==>  BEESAT-2    39136   22113.191828   24240.091758
2024-09-26  ==>  FEES        48082   22113.966972   24270.851238
2024-10-02  ==>  CAPE-3      47309   22113.838876   24276.046000
2024-10-06  ==>  GRIFEX      40379   22113.771161   24280.451152
2024-10-26  ==>  JAISAT      44419   22114.146413   24300.394918
2024-11-04  ==>  LIGHTSAT    44393   22113.470379   24309.930949
2024-11-08  ==>  OPSSAT      44878   22113.474091   24313.007915
2024-11-09  ==>  SANOSAT-1   51031   22113.433785   24314.552883
2024-11-14  ==>  NIUSAT      42766   22113.374408   24319.517012
2024-12-23  ==>  BEESAT-9    44412   22113.417535   24358.330563
2025-01-14  ==>  MAXVALIER   42778   22113.391477   25014.127976


 
calculations based on SatEvo

2 thoughts on “Decay”

  1. 2019-02-27 ==> FOX-1C 42700 19037.681851 19058.483559
    2019-02-27 ==> HAVELSAT 42700 19037.681851 19058.483559

    FOX-1C/AO-95 is object 43770.

  2. Interesting 1KUNS not on the list, currently sitting at around 300km? nSight1 de orbited within 2month from there

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